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How bad can a normal losing streak get?

Even a good win rate runs into long losing streaks. Type in your numbers and see how long they get, and how deep the account falls, from chance alone.

Over 200 trades at a 55% win rate, a run of 6 or more losses in a row has at least even odds. 8 or more in a row has a 10% chance or better.

Streaks like these are ordinary. This is what chance alone produces with your numbers, and it is what an account has to get through whatever the edge turns out to be.

middle 80% of runs median run 25 sample runs

Typical worst drawdown: 10%
1 run in 10 is worse than: 15%
Ends below the start: 8.9%

Chance of a losing streak

3 or more in a row	>99.9%
5 or more in a row	88%
8 or more in a row	17%
10 or more in a row	3.5%
12 or more in a row	0.7%
15 or more in a row	0.1%

At least once in 200 trades. Exact, not simulated.

Chance of a drawdown

10% or deeper	44%
20% or deeper	2.4%
30% or deeper	0.1%
50% or deeper	<0.1%

At some point during the run. 2,000 simulated runs.

This is a simulation on the numbers you enter. It is not investment advice, does not rate any strategy and says nothing about future results. Also see is your record big enough to prove anything?

A simulation is not your account

TraderTekno is an AI assistant that reads your trading account and answers in plain language, using your real history instead of a simulation, and it says so when there isn't enough data to answer.

We're testing with a small group first. We'll email you when a spot opens.

How it works

Does this tell me if my strategy works?

No. It shows what chance alone produces with the numbers you enter. It does not look at your trades, rate a method, or say anything about future results.

How are the streak chances calculated?

Exactly, with dynamic programming over every possible sequence of wins and losses, assuming each trade is independent. They are not simulated, so they do not move when you run again.

How are the drawdowns and the chart made?

By playing 2,000 runs of your chosen number of trades. Each trade wins with your win rate and moves the account by your risk per trade, compounding. Drawdown is the largest fall from a peak to a later low. The seed is stored in the link, so a shared link shows the same picture.

What does it leave out?

Real trades are not all the same size, results cluster in streaks and market regimes, costs and slippage vary, and position sizing changes. None of that is modelled, so real drawdowns are usually deeper than the simulation, not shallower.

Do you store what I type?

No. The numbers stay in your browser. A shared link carries them in the address so whoever opens it sees the same result. The page is counted as a visit, like every page here, without cookies or IP addresses.